Perfect at Home – San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

The San Diego Padres (11-10 SU, 11-9 RL, 11-8-1 O/U) and Los Angeles Dodgers (14-8 SU, 13-9 RL, 11-7-4 O/U) will both be looking to get back in the win column when the longtime division rivals square off at Dodger Stadium tonight at 10 PM ET.

The Padres were handed a 7-5 loss by the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, losing as +125 underdogs while the 12 combined runs checked in Over the posted over/under total (10.5).

Adrian Gonzalez belted two home runs and drove in three runs in a losing effort.

The Dodgers lost to the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as +130 road underdogs while the game’s 13 total runs played well OVER the set O/U total (7.5) in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

Orlando Hudson went 2-for-5 with one RBI for the Dodgers.

Tonight, the Padres will hand the ball to right-hander Josh Geer (0-0, 4.91 ERA) who will make his first start since tossing seven-innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in a 5-4 loss on April 19.

Geer also allowed a whopping five runs in four innings of relief in Saturday’s 10-1 loss to Pittsburgh after starter Shawn Hill left with soreness in his right biceps.

The Dodgers will counter with right-hander James McDonald (1-1, 7.11 ERA) to help them keep their perfect home record this season intact.

McDonald earned his first major league victory on Saturday, beating the Colorado Rockies 6-5 despite allowing five runs on four hits while striking out two and walking a career-high four batters in just five innings.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

The Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.

The Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.

The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

The Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Los Angeles.

The Padres are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings.

The Padres are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

MLB Odds

San Diego Padres +1½ -155

Josh Greer –R +130

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +135

James McDonald –R -150

Over 9½ -115

Under 9½ -105

Analysis: With two mediocre starting pitchers taking the bump tonight, I like the Over first and foremost for this contest.

Each of James McDonald’s last two starts have gone over their set O/U totals while Josh Greer has helped to send two of his last three starts Over their respective O/U totals as well.

Despite dropping three of their last four games, I expect the Dodgers to get back on track by unleashing an offensive explosion on Greer and the Padres tonight, though I will admit that I expect McDonald to give up his fair share of runs as well.

MLB Free Picks: Over 9½ Total Runs/Dodgers -1½ Runs