Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew Crew Owns Pitt

Pittsburgh Pirates (11-7) at Milwaukee Brewers (9-10)

BetOnline MLB betting odds: Brewers -145, Pirates +125, Total 8.5

Southpaw Paul Maholm (3-0, 2.03 ERA) is making an early case for an All-Star slot and is the starting pitcher for the Pirates tonight. Right-hander David Bush (1-0, 3.15 ERA), coming off a dominating performance, gets the assignment for the Brewers.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(Numbers may go back to last season)

* PITT has won seven of its last ten games

* PITT has played four of its last five games OVER the total

* PITT has played four of its last six road games OVER the total

* MIL has won five of its last six games

* MIL has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* MIL has lost four of its last six home games

* MIL has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* MIL has won the last 13 meetings

* Five of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total

* MIL has won the last 16 meetings as the home team

One of the big stories this season has been the success of the Pittsburgh pitching staff. Really, there were pundits all over the place who were predicting disaster (including myself) for the Pirates because they just didn’t appear to have capable major league starters. Well, so far, so good for them. At this moment Pittsburgh’s starters have the second lowest ERA in the majors as a group at 3.27, trailing only the Kansas City Royals. At one point the team posted three shutouts in a four-game period.

A big part of this success has been Paul Maholm, a lefty who was pretty respectable for this club last year (9-9 record, 3.71 ERA) and has just come out like a house afire in 2009. Maholm has made four starts, and the first three were tremendous, as he gave up just two runs in 20-1/3 innings. He slipped a bit against the Marlins six days ago, allowing four runs in six innings, but his team won anyway, just as it has every time he’s stepped to the mound.

David Bush has been almost as solid, and it would be very difficult to top what he did last time out. Bush took a no-hitter into the eighth innings against defending champion Philadelphia Phillies, before giving up a pinch-hit homer to Matt Stairs. He came out of the game one out later, but got the win. The last four times he’s pitched against Pittsburgh, the Brewers have won.

Of course, that’s easy to explain, because there is no team is major league baseball that holds such mastery over another team as the Brew Crew does over Pittsburgh. They have won 13 straight times, and 16 consecutive meetings at Miller Park. Naturally, Milwaukee bloated the Pirate ERA in Monday’s game, as Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks combined to drive in six of the ten runs they scored in a 10-5 win.

I respect Maholm, but I don’t know if I want to fool with the kind of streak Milwaukee has against the Pirates. It’s almost like a hex, and in this case, perhaps well worth laying the -145 in the BetOnline National League baseball sports betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: MILWAUKEE (-145) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)