Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets – Which Yao will Show Up?

BetOnline NBA Odds:  HOUSTON -6, Total 184.5

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* PORT has covered 13 of its last 18 games

* PORT has won seven of its last eight games SU

* PORT has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* PORT has covered seven of its last nine road games

* PORT has won five of its last six road games SU

* PORT has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total

* HOU has won and covered six of its last eight games

* HOU has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* HOU has covered its last five home games

* HOU has won its last six home games SU

* HOU has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Also….

* HOU has covered six of the last eight meetings

* HOU has won eight of the last ten meetings SU

* The last six meetings have gone OVER the total

* HOU has won ten of the last 11 meetings SU as the home team

* Fourteen of the last 20 meetings in Houston have gone UNDER the total

* HOU has had the shooting edge in six of the last eight meetings

* HOU has made more three-pointers in five of the last seven meetings

The Blazers were dumbfounded by Yao Ming’s 9-for-9, 24-point performance in Game 1, as the Rockets rolled to a 108-81 win. They changed tactics for the series’ second game, as Joel Przybilla fronted Yao. When Przybilla, at 7’1" and 245 pounds, fronts someone, that’s a big front. And both Przybilla and Greg Oden logged a lot of minutes at the same time. As a result, Yao has just three field goals and finished with 11 points and eight rebounds. He did not block a shot.

So which is the Yao that will show up on Friday? Well, for Houston’s sake, someone who is more aggressive and can make adjustments. Dikembe Mutombo got hurt in the first game, so he may be of no use in giving the Chinese wonder a breather. Von Wafer came off the bench to tally 21 points for Houston, and that was good news. Ron Artest’s one-for-eight output from beyond the three-point arc was not.

Probably one of the big factors in Portland bouncing back was that it was a nervous team in the series opener and got itself together on the home floor after having a game under its collective belt. This will be the first road playoff game for a number of Blazers, and if they can’t get some duplication from Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge, who combined for 69 points in game 2, they might have some trouble generating consistent offense. Portland has won some road games down the stretch (five of its last six, in fact), but Houston is a team that has held the opposition to 43% shooting at the Toyota Center, and that’s not bad.

We should mention the play of Aaron Brooks for a second. Brooks, who was thrust into the point guard spot when Rafer Alston was traded to Orlando, has taken a leadership role from a scoring perspective, tallying 50 points on 65.5% shooting in the first two games. It doesn’t seem that Portland wants to put a lot of pressure on Yao the defender, since the centers have combined for just 29 total points. Houston has shot over 50% in its last three games against Portland, and has won ten of the last 11 meetings on this floor.

We’re going to go ahead and lay the points with the Rockets, the six-point favorite in the BetOnline NBA pro basketball playoff betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  HOUSTON -6 **

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