Pro-Bowl Betting Preview – Favored NFC Faces Horrifically Depleted AFC

Everyone has their problems with the Pro Bowl, but nothing has infuriated the sports world more than Roger Goddell moving the NFL’s version of the All-Star game the weekend before the Super Bowl. Not only has this forced Super Bowl competitors to drop out of the matchup as their prepare for all the Super Bowl XLIV betting lines they have to beat, it also hasn’t given ample time for the playoff competitors to recover from the gauntlet of the NFL’s sports betting season. This is less of a Pro-Bowl and more of a Leftover-Bowl.

The most glaring and embarrassing addition to the Pro Bowl roster is the AFC’s reserve quarterback David Garrard whose Jaguars went a pitiful 7-9 SU while getting decimated on the football betting line 5-11 ATS. Garrard is joined Matt Schaub and Vince Young, who only played in ten freakin’ games this season. That trio of misfit toys replaces the deserving starters of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (injured) and Philip Rivers (injured).

That being said, the AFC quarterbacks will enjoy a massive load of protection when they get the best offensive linemen in the game. The defenders of the trench are largely made up of New York Jets’ lineman, including center Nick Mangold, guard Alan Faneca and tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. They’ll be joined by Ryan Clady of the Broncos and Logan Mankins of the Patriots. If the Jets’ were good enough to make Mark Sanchez look like a Super Bowl hopeful, then they’ll do enough to give Garrard and his AFC quarterback counterparts enough time to find receivers in the open field.

The NBA, NHL and MLB versions of the All-Star contest are always scoring melee’s and the Pro Bowl is no exception. The football betting TOTAL stand at 57.0 points and the average over the past five years has been 57.4. The average margin of victory for either side has been 8.2 points per game in the last five, and 11.8 points in the last 10 outings. The AFC and NFC are tied in the last decade at 5-5 SU, but the NFC’s advantage on the betting line is offset because of the players running the ball this year. 

NFC All-Stars (20-19) vs. AFC All-Stars (19-20)
Sunday, January 31st – Sun Life Stadium, Miami — 7:20pm EST
Pro Bowl Betting Line – NFC -2.5 (57.0)

The big difference for the NFC are that their breadth of quarterbacks is much better. Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb will back up starter Aaron Rodgers. Brett Favre (injured) and Drew Brees (Super Bowl) will sit this one out. McNabb will have the familiarity of DeSean Jackson while Romo will enjoy zipping passes to Miles Austin.

Defensively this game comes down to scoring, scoring and more scoring. While I’ve ripped the AFC’s quarterback trio, their running-back triumvirate is downright scary. Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice have all had plenty of time to rest thanks to the inability of their teams to reach, or succeed, in the post season. On top of that, they’re almost three identical backs who can break out of the backfield to bust through the half-effort tackles of defenders and they can also offer relief as receivers on short yardage plays.

If any bet in the NFL is a crapshoot, it’s the Pro Bowl. But with the points and more load in the skill positions, the AFC will cover the line and “upset” the NFC. There’s always one guy who tries a little too hard when everyone else is just enjoying a virtual pick up game. Two years ago it was Adrian Peterson. Last year it was Larry Fitzgerald. This year, it will be Chris Johnson. Bank on it.

Furious Pro Bowl Pick – AFC +2.5 (OVER)