Ridiculously Low Super Bowl Betting Odds Make Patriots a Non-Bet

Knowing if a bet offers value or not is relative.  Oh, sure, everybody knows that the odds on the St. Louis Rams to win the Super Bowl this season, +20000, are incredibly high but probably not high enough, or that betting on the Browns for anything less than tax-free status in Cleveland presents no value.

But knowing whether or not some of the more highly regarded teams in the NFL are offering value this year to win this Super Bowl is relative to your own belief system.  Case in point, the New England Patriots. 

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I must say that I feel somewhat validated that the Pats have floated up to +1200 from their +800 favoritism in March.  I believe it was +800.  I know for sure that it wasn’t +1200, but even at +1200 in the professional football sportsbook, Bill Belichick’s team is an incredible underlay.  My personal belief system tells me that they have no shot at winning a Super Bowl this year.

They are going off at the same odds as the New York Jets, whom many consider, me included, a vastly superior team.  Not only that, but they are going off at lower odds than the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.

There are reasons to believe that all of those teams have a legitimate shot at winning the 2011 Super Bowl.  I can’t think of any reasons to believe that the Patriots will.  In fact, there are a few reasons to believe the opposite.

New England Patriots

Odds to Win the AFC East:  +130
Odds to Win the AFC Championship:  +600
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLV:  +1200

Reasons the Patriots Won’t Win…Well, Anything

The above isn’t true.  The Pats will win some games.  Heck, they might even make it to the playoffs, but they won’t win the AFC East, the AFC Championship, or Super Bowl XLV.

The New York Jets – - First, let’s put to bed any notion that the offensive line is in disarray without Alan Faneca.  Last I checked, Nick Mangold, Damien Woody and D’Brickashaw Ferguson were all top-rated offensive linemen.  That, and the fact that they drafted Joe McKnight out of USC, means that their running game should be just as good, if not better, than it was last season.  The defense should be able to blitz more creatively with both Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie shutting down wide receivers one-on-one in the defensive backfield.  The Patriots are favored over this team to win the AFC East?  Okay…sure…

The Patriots are old – - There’s nothing relative about this.  Tom Brady is happy hanging out with Giselle and not even Belichick can get on his case for that.  Randy Moss is a year older.  Welker, although he’s looked good in mini-camp, is coming off of an injury.  TE Alge Crumpler was over the hill last year.

No real running game – - I love Fred Taylor, but, really?  He’s back?  Laurence Maroney can be a decent running back, but when you’ve got Moss and Welker out there you’re sort of forced to throw.  The real problem is that the Pats don’t have an every down back ala Curtis Martin.  They’ve got a lot of guys used to carrying the ball maybe 10 times a game.  Maybe…

Suspect defense – - There are a lot of “names” on the defense, but it’s somewhat suspect.  CB Leigh Bodden has always been okay in his career, but never really that great.  Everybody keeps talking about how awesome Jerrod Mayo is supposed to be, but a lot of teams made he and the rest of the linebacking corp look silly last year.  Signing 10-year vet Gerard Warren to play on the front line looks like a stab in the dark to me.  I mean, he’s proven to be a failure his entire career.

No leadership – - After Brady, who’s the leader on this team?  It’s not Randy Moss.  It’s not anybody on the defense.  So, who is it?  Brady’s heart doesn’t appear to be into football now that he’s lived the real high-life courtesy of his awesomely successful wife.  If Brady doesn’t get these guys going, then who will?

The AFC is tough – - The Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, and Baltimore Ravens all have the ability to win the Super Bowl this year.  After those 4 teams, the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos could all upset the hierarchy of power in the AFC.  That’s a lot of very good teams.

The Patriots do not offer value to sports gamblers at +1200 to win the Super Bowl.  The Pats’ fair odds start somewhere at +2000.  Sports gamblers who wish to bet on the Patriots to win this season’s Super Bowl will be better served to wait and see whether or not their odds rise during the pre-season.

If the Patriots’ odds don’t rise, then look elsewhere.  There are a lot of good teams in the NFL this year.

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