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Road Warriors – Texas A&M at Nebraska

February 24, 2009

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: NEBRASKA -3.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* A&M is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games

* A&M has won 15 of its last 22 games SU

* A&M is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 road games

* A&M has lost five of its last six road games SU

* A&M has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total

* NEB has covered one of its last five games

* NEB has won four of its last six games SU

* NEB has played its last five games UNDER the total

* NEB has won 18 of its last 21 home games SU

* NEB has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total

Also…

* NEB has won eight of the last 12 meetings SU

* NEB has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team

* NEB has had the shooting edge in four of the last six meetings

* A&M has made more three-pointers in four of the last six meetings

Nebraska’s M.O. is that when they are playing at the Devaney Center, they’re tight on defense and play at a pace that makes every gamer a knockdown, drag-out brawl. It is not a place for teams who like to accelerate the volume.

The Huskers have chalked up wins against Creighton, Missouri and Texas, among others, but the one thing about playing in a game that is designed to be low-scoring is that you don’t often have a lot of room to lay points. This is not one of the lesser opponents on Nebraska’s schedule, and it shouldn’t be treated as such.

Sure, Texas A&M likes to play faster than Nebraska does, and the Aggies may feel uncomfortable with a slowdown. They are, however, very good on the offense boards, and will go into this game with a size advantage, exemplified by the presence of junior Chinemelu Elonu, who has eight double-doubles on the season. He joins 6’9", 240-pound Bryan Davis to make second shots easier.

Davis and Elonu are two of four double-digit scorers in the Aggie starting lineup; with Josh Carter always a three-point threat (2.1 per game) and B.J. Holmes coming off the bench to throw up long-rage bombs (42%), this team can bring around the kind of inside-outside balance that will stretch out that Husker defense.

Nebraska outscores its opponents at home by 12.5 points a game, but if Texas A&M does not allow itself to be burned with turnovers, they take this to the buzzer or gain the straight-up win. We’re on the take with the Aggies, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAAB odds.

JAY’S PLAY: TEXAS A&M +3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)

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