Saturday MLB Free Picks – Hamilton, Guerrero to Pound Orioles into Submission

Prolific heavy-hitters, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero will both be looking to bash the Baltimore Orioles into submission when they host their lowly rivals in the third game of a four-game set at Rangers Ballpark tonight at 8 PM ET.

The Orioles had lost seven of its last 10 games heading into Friday nights Game 2 contest while Texas had gone just 4-6 over the same span.

Saturday, July 10, 8:05 PM ET

MLB Odds: N/A

Baltimore Orioles

TBD

Texas Rangers

Matt Harrison

Baltimore (26-59 SU, 36-45-4 O/U, 35-50 RL)

Texas (50-35 SU, 41-40-4 O/U, 41-44 RL)

TV: MASN 2 HD, TXA-21 HD

Radio: Sirius 179 XM

Here is a look at the key MLB online betting trends for each team, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Picks.

• Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Texas.
• Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore 411

• Orioles are 16-38 in their last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 Saturday games.
• Orioles are 14-41 in their last 55 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Texas 411

• Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games.
• Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.
• Rangers are 4-1 in Harrison’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Rangers are 2-5 in Harrison’s last 7 starts.

The Starters: The Orioles haven’t named a starter as of yet, but Interim manager Juan Samuel said he was initially leaning toward going with veteran left-handed reliever Mark Hendrickson.

However, Hendrickson pitched in Thursday’s game against the Rangers in relief and Baltimore will almost certainly turn to talented Triple-A right-hander Chris Tillman.

Tillman is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA since he was optioned by the Orioles. During his time in Baltimore, he was 0-8 with a 8.40 ERA in four starts.

"It was a possibility that we were going to think about Hendrickson, but we would like to keep the bullpen the way it is," Samuel said. "We have four games here, and this is a very good offensive club. We need all the arms we could use. We are leaning toward making that decision [Friday]."

Texas will counter with right-hander Matt Harrison who comes out of the bullpen to make his first start after seven reief appearances. Harrison has allowed just two earned runs over his last five relief appearances spanning 12.0 innings.

Analysis: I’m going to go with the Texas Rangers to record the outright home win and moneyline cover as Matt Harrison has been throwing the ball very well lately.

If Matt Harrison doesn’t get pounded for an insane number of runs, I like the Rangers’ far more prolific offense to make a win stand up.

The Rangers have gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five Saturday games while also going 7-2 in their last nine Game 3 contests.

The Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 Saturday games and an awful 14-41 in their last 55 games against a left-handed starter.

For MLB gamblers that like to wager on the O/U outcome, I also like the Over for this matchup as it has played out in fix of the last six meeting between these AL rivals.

MLB Free Picks: Rangers SU Moneyline Win/Over Set O/U Total