SEC College Hoops – Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Thursday, January 21 – 9 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: FLORIDA -1.5

There was a lot of excitement about Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators at the outset of the season, and it got stronger after an 8-0 start that included wins over Florida State and Michigan State, which made them favorites in many people’s NCAA college basketball picks. Things have been a little rougher since. Losses against Syracuse, Vanderbilt and Kentucky have followed, and all of them have been decisive. Victories over rebuilding programs like North Carolina State and LSU are not anything to hang their hat on. So which is the real Gator team, and can that team win on the road?

Here are some college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• FLA has won four of its last six games SU
• FLA has lost seven of its last nine road games SU
• FLA has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• ARK has lost four of its last five games SU
• ARK has covered five of its last six games
• ARK has covered four of its last five home games
• ARK has won six of its last nine home games SU

Also….

• FLA has won five of the last six meetings SU
• ARK has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team
• ARK has won six of the last eight meetings SU as the home team

Good question. The Arkansas team they’re facing is a team that is not as good as it should be. Maybe that’s the kind of thing that’s going to happen when you’ve got several players suspended at the start of the season and more players injured. The Razorbacks would appear to have some of the elements of a team that is successful – the dynamic, energetic point guard in Courtney Fortson, who is very goods, when he’s on; a shooting guard (Rotnei Clarke) who can fill up the hoop, when he’s on, and Michael Washington, a potent big man who can score and rebound, when he’s healthy, complemented up front by a freshman (Marshawn Powell) who looks like he’s going places.

Of course, Fortson turns the ball over too much (over five times a game) and Arkansas isn’t always sharp from the free throw line. The Hogs have enough manpower to hang in there with some good teams – since Fortson’s return they have lost a competitive covering effort against Texas and were narrowly defeated by Mississippi State – but wins haven’t been the easiest thing to come by.

Florida doesn’t put a stranglehold on people defensively, and its frontcourt people, Vernon Macklin and Dan Werner, are far from impenetrable. We’re going to look for the Razorbacks, buoyed by a win over Alabama last time out, to continue progressing on a road that might see it fulfilling some potential. We’re taking Arkansas plus the 1.5 points in our BetOnline NCAA college basketball picks.

JAY’S PLAY: ARKANSAS +1.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)