Smiling Tiger an Attractive Play in the Pat O’Brien

Likely overlaid horse racing odds on Grade I Bing Crosby winner Smiling Tiger in the Pat O’Brien on Saturday make him an attractive overlay.

Smiling Tiger went off at close to 8/1 to win the Bing Crosby.  Because chalk Cost of Freedom didn’t break well, Smiling Tiger found himself on an easy lead.  He practically coasted to a win.

Well, the same sort of pace faces Smiling Tiger on Saturday.  Because Breeders Cup Sprint placed Crown of Thorns is entered for the Pat O’Brien, Smiling Tiger should go off at nice overlaid betting odds.

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Del Mar Racetrack  - Saturday

Where:  Del Mar Racetrack – Race 10
When:  August 28th, 2010 at 8:30 pm EST
TV:  TVG

Pat O’Brien Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $300,000. (Includes $100,000 – BC – Breeders’ Cup). For Three-Year-Olds And Upward.

7 furlongs over Polytrack

pp.8-Smiling Tiger – - 7/2 fair betting odds

Not only has Smiling Tiger won two races in a row but he’s also the fastest horse in this race.  There just isn’t a whole of other speed outside of Smiling Tiger and Tropic Storm.  That means that unless the profile of the main track at Del Mar changes, right now it favors speedsters, Smiling Tiger should duel with Tropic Storm until the middle of the stretch where he’ll take over for the victory.  I love Smiling Tiger’s chances on Saturday to win his second straight Grade I races at what I hope will be fair horse racing odds.

pp.3 Tropic Storm – - 4/1 fair betting odds

The lack of speed in this race is one of the reasons that terrific trainer Craig Dollase feels comfortable putting Tropic Storm into this race.  Tropic Storm comes off of a turf race where he lost by a nose to Amazombie.  That turf race, at the optional claiming $62,500 level, should have set him up perfectly for this.  Jockey David Flores will most likely put Tropic Storm on the lead and then try to carve out easy fractions.  If Victor Espinoza aboard Smiling Tiger lets him do that, then Tropic Storm could be very difficult to run down.

pp.6 Crown of Thorns – - 4/1 fair betting odds

Crown of Thorns lost by only a nose at around 16/1 to Dancing Silks in the Breeders Cup Sprint in his last.  Crown of Thorns hasn’t run since but he’s still likely to go off as the favorite in this because there’s no race that compares to the BC Sprint.  Crown of Thorns rarely runs a bad race and is 1 for 1 at the distance, but I want to watch a race before betting on Crown of Thorns to win at low odds 

Horse Wagering Strategy

To me, Smiling Tiger is going to be very, very tough to beat in this race.  I’m going to bet on Smiling Tiger to win.

I will also bet a trifecta with Smiling Tiger keyed over Crown of Thorns and Tropic Storm.  I will reverse for less.

I will bet a trifecta keying Smiling Tiger with Crown of Thorns, Tropic Storm, with ALL.

Good luck!

Get horse racing odds for every track in North America in the racebook.

Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com