Strikeforce Main Event – Fedor Emelianenko (-500) vs. Brett Rogers (+350)

We all know that Brock Lesnar sells pay-per-views. But can the world’s top heavyweight, Fedor Emelianenko, bring TV ratings at a rate anywhere near what Lesnar and even Kimbo Slice are capable of?

The world will find out on Saturday as CBS Television brings what should be the best main event and fight card in the history of free MMA TV to the airwaves.

Emelianenko is the polar opposite of Lesnar: technique over brute force, quiet confidence over self-promotion, grappling over wrestling, a pudgy physique compared with a mostly rock-solid body, and on and on.

But that’s what makes him so fascinating as we continue to watch his dominance unfold.

The man who will take to the cage on Saturday against Fedor, Brett Rogers, would elicit the most picks in a straw poll of men on the street with his enormous size and more intimidating presence, but the bettors know better and have predictably installed Fedor as a big-time favorite.

Fedor Emelianenko is currently a -500 to +350 favorite over the underdog Rogers in the BetOnline Sportsbook, and for good reason as he has beaten virtually all of the best heavyweights in the world.

Rogers has youth and size on his side, however, and he overwhelmed strong favorite Andrei Arlovski in his last Strikeforce bout to earn this title shot.

The specter of a quick knockout at the hands of Rogers is something Fedor will have to look out for, as he should have about 40 pounds or so of a weight advantage come fight time along with 3-4 inches in height.

But Fedor’s biggest asset is his sambo-based grappling game along with his experience and cold, calculating demeanor in the cage. If Fedor gets in trouble, he should be able to clinch with Rogers and take him down where he has the potential to put him in a serious world of hurt if not submit him. Rogers could be in serious trouble due to his lack of a reliable ground game if that’s where the fight goes.

Make no mistake, Fedor will lose sometime soon because he might have a bit of ring rust and he hasn’t fought the level of competition he did back in PRIDE. That makes Rogers a value bet at +350 as an underdog going into this one.

But the likely outcome is that Fedor uses his game planning, grappling, and/or knockout power to chop down the taller Rogers, eventually making him tap due to an armbar in the first or second round.

The pick: Fedor Emelianenko (-500).