Surprising Padres Battle Pirates – Pittsburgh at San Diego

The San Diego Padres (9-6 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U) will be trying to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates (9-6 SU, 10-5 RL, 7-7-1 O/U) tonight at PETCO Park at 10 PM ET.

The Padres are coming off a 1-0 loss in 10 innings to San Francisco on Wednesday as -125 favorites while the final score played UNDER the game’s posted over/under total (9).

The Pirates completed a three-game sweep of the red-hot Florida Marlins, including an emphatic 7-4 victory in Wednesday afternoon’s series finale as +105 underdogs. The 11 combined runs played OVER the posted over/under total (8).

Tonight the Pirates will hand the ball to right-hander Ian Snell (1-2, 4.24 ERA) while the Padres counter with right-hander Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09 ERA).

Snell won his last start on Saturday, shutting out the Atlanta Braves for seven innings, allowing just four hits in 10-0 win while Correia gave up two runs in five innings in a 7-2 loss to New York last Wednesday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

The Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.

The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.

The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Over is 7-0 in Snell’s last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 Friday games.

The Pirates are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings.

The Pirates are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in San Diego.

MLB Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -200

Ian Snell –R +105

San Diego Padres -1½ +170

Kevin Correia –R -125

Over 8 -110

Under 8 -110

Analysis: Both starting pitchers in this matchup are coming off solid outings the last time they took the mound, leading me to believe the Under will play out in this contest first and foremost.

I’ll also take the Padres, playing at home, to cover the Run Line behind a solid outing from Kevin Correia.

MLB Free Picks: Under 8 Total Runs/San Diego Padres +1½ Runs