Tennis Betting: SAP Open First Round Picks

San Jose, California – The SAP Open kicks off the American early hard court swing that leads into the first two Masters series on the season, the back-to-back

March Madness events in Indian Wells and Miami. Andy Roddick headlines the action in San Jose, gunning for a fourth career SAP Open title (2004-05 and 2008). Radek Stepanek, the defending champion, enters the draw as the third seed and he will be looking to reach a third final in a row, and potentially bid for a second consecutive title.

Both Roddick and Stepanek will have their work cut out for them though as the draw is loaded with heavyweights – Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Haas, Tomas Berdych and Sam Querrey, to name a few, making up one of the best fields in recent history. Should make for interesting tennis betting this week, I’ll say.

Tennis Betting Line:

Leonardo Mayer +2½ -120 +125 23 O -125 U -115
Ernest Gulbis -2½ -120 -165 23 O -125 U -115

Match Time: Not Before 05:00 PM Eastern Time Monday February 9, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: It will be the first career meeting between Ernests Gulbis of Latvia and Leonardo Mayer of Argentina when they kick off their bid for the SAP Open title in the first round. In terms of marks for the year, they are both 2-2 on the term. Gulbis reached the quarters in Doha, getting his season off to a positive start but he fell in the first round of the Aussie Open. Mayer, meanwhile, reached the quarters in Sydney after emerging from the qualies. He also lost in the first round of the Aussie Open.

The bookies favour Gulbis in this match at -165 to win outright. The favourite nod is in acknowledgement of his organic talent. Problem is, he doesn’t successfully translate talent into results. Surely, that is what counts the most – in tennis betting it does.

Mayer is a developing talent in the game. In fact, he currently ranks higher than Gulbis (more proof of the Latvians underachieving ways). Mayer enters as the +125 underdog, a mere price that suggests he is definitely worth the risk. Underscoring a play on Mayer is that fact that a win by the Argentine will be in tune to their respective rankings, if an upset in the market.

Tennis Free Picks: I like Mayer to take this match. Convincingly. Therefore, Mayer at +125 in straight sets, Under 23 -115. Mayer to cover the spread at +2 ½ -120 is the pick to hedge bets with, because if he should lose, I think he will not go out without a fight and therefore, it would be a close loss.

Tennis Betting Line:

Ryan Harrison +3 +105 +170 22½ O -120 U -120
Denis Istomin -3 -145 -220 22½ O -120 U -120

Match Time: Not Before 06:15 PM Eastern Time Monday February 9, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: American Ryan Harrison, 17, received a wild card into the SAP Open. He will begin his campaign against Denis Istomin of Uzbekistan, a player he played against last year in Binghamton, New York, on the lower circuits and lost to 7-5, 6-0. Harrison takes a 0-1 mark into the first round and a debilitating world No. 326 ranking. One would think the odds would be seriously stacked against him, considering what a greenhorn he is, but the market has released conservative odds on him, listing him at +170 to win outright.

I would caution tennis bettors reading too much into those odds. More likely than not, they have been muted to accommodate patriotic betting. He after all has home edge and there will be many supporters to push him on to victory. The other component behind such modest puppy odds is that Istomin is not exactly unbeatable and theoretically, Harrison has a shot.

Ranked No. 96 in the world and boasting a 2-3 mark ahead of the SAP Open, Istomin doesn’t loom as large as some of the other players do. His odds are short though at -220 to win outright. Enough so, that he is a convincing favourite in my opinion. He also has experience and maturity over Harrison.

Tennis Free Picks: Istomin at -220 to win outright is the good play in my opinion as well as to cover the spread at -3 -145. Harrison could make this an exciting first round match and therefore I like the Over 22 ½ -120.

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