Travers’ Stakes Means Going For the Underdog

The horse racing sportsbook is offering future betting on the entrants for this Saturday’s Grade I Travers’ Stakes.

Lookin’ At Lucky, who would have been the favorite in the race, won’t be running.  That’s opened things up for a number of horses to prove that they’ve got what it takes to win the Grade I Travers. 

The Mid-Summer Derby will not only showcase Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box, but also Trappe Shot, who finished second in the Haskell Invitational, Fly Down, who finished second in the Belmont Stakes, First Dude, who finished second in the Preakness Stakes, and A Little Warm, the Grade II Jim Dandy winner.

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Now, that’s what I call a deep field!

Grade I Travers Stakes

Where:  Saratoga Springs, NY
When:  August 28th, 2010 at 6:14 pm EST

Saratoga Racecourse – Race 12

Travers Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds.

1 ¼ miles over dirt

1. Miner’s Reserve +1200 – - Who would have thought that this guy would have turned into Nick Zito’s best 3-year-old?  Okay, maybe he’s not there just yet but his odds in the horse racing sportsbook make him a live longshot.  The only horse that’s been able to beat him lately has been A Little Warm and he lost by only 1 ¾ lengths to that rival in the Grade II Jim Dandy.  Don’t look past this guy to upset the Travers’ field on Saturday.

2. Trappe Shot +400 – - Nobody was going to beat Lookin’ At Lucky in the Haskell Invitational and this guy was the only one making up any ground on Lucky and trying hard down the lane.  He’s a serious contender to win the Travers because he’s got the ability to lie close to the pace or to close from off the pace if he needs to.  I also love how he’s lightly raced and still learning the game.  Don’t look past Trappe Shot in this.  In fact, he’s the bet in my opinion.

3. Admiral Alex +1200 – - Oh, he could turn into a very good racehorse, but I can’t see him beating this field off of a lone maiden victory.  He’d have to improve big time in order to beat these guys.  Even if you do like his chances, don’t bet him to win in the horse racing sportsbook.  Wait until the race because his horse racing odds should be much higher than 12 to 1.

4. First Dude +800 – - First Dude is getting no respect after a better than it looked 4th place finish in the Haskell Invitational. The problem for this guy is that there is way more speed in this than he’s probably likely to want to face.  He’s had three tough, I mean really tough, races since May.  That has to have taken something out of him and A Little Warm and Miner’s Reserve are just as fast as he is early in a race.  Pass. 

5. A Little Warm +350 – - This guy really reminds of Tiznow with how he runs right on the pace and then takes over when he has to.  Trainer Anthony Dutrow has turned this guy into a fantastic racehorse.  I believe he could actually get better before it’s all said and done, but I still question his class, he was sired by Stormin’ Fever who charges $5,000 a pop, and the odds are going to be low.  Also, I really don’t see him getting the distance.  Some things to like.  Some things not to like.

6. Ice Box +1000 – - He hasn’t been the same since the Kentucky Derby.  Maybe, Nick Zito, his trainer, should put him on the bench for the rest of the year, but, yeah, we know that Nick’s not going to do that!  Before throwing him out of the mix totally, however, horseplayers should note that he picks up Julien Leparoux to ride and he’s bred to love 1 ¼ miles, obviously.  The horse racing odds make him a fantastic play in my mind.

7. Afleet Express +600 – - He never got into it in the Jim Dandy because jockey JJ Castellano believed that Miner’s Reserve and A Little Warm would come back to the field.  That’s okay because he showed in the Jim Dandy that he can rate and maybe, just maybe, that’s what will take him to the finish line first in this.  He’s yet another that horseplayers shouldn’t look past.

8. Fly Down +800 – - The other Nick Zito trainee did have to check sharply while making up ground in the Grade II Jim Dandy but there was something about his action that day that rubs me the wrong way.  He just didn’t look comfortable running and there wasn’t that burst of speed that horseplayers saw in the Grade II Dwyer.  I’m beginning to think that the Belmont run, where he finished 2nd to Drosselmeyer, may have taken more out of him than Zito wants to believe.

9. Friend Or Foe +1500 – - The step up to graded stakes company in the Jim Dandy didn’t work in his favor.  The truth is that he probably needs to run 3 or maybe even 4 more races before taking on a group like this.  While Trappe Shot showed that he’s improving, this lightly raced horse showed that maybe he doesn’t belong by throwing in the towel against A Little Warm and Miners Reserve.

10. Afleet Again +3000 – - This son of Afleet Alex is not without a shot if the race were to fall apart, but that’s asking for a lot of things to happen.  Afleet Again is a good horse but not a great horse and the horse that wins on Saturday might have to be great. 

11. Super Saver +600 – - The Kentucky Derby winner tries hard, I’ll give him that much, but unless it becomes a bog on Saturday and jockey Calvin Borel can put him on the rail, I don’t see him winning the Travers Stakes.  He’s failed in both the Preakness and the Haskell since winning the Kentucky Derby.  He’s an overlay at +600 horse racing odds.  

First:  Trappe Shot
Second:  Ice Box
Third:  Afleet Express
Fourth:  A Little Warm

Good luck!

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Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com