UFC 112 Odds – Edgar Doesn’t Have Much Shot Against B.J. Penn on Saturday Night

The UFC sportsbook is currently offering odds on the Lightweight Championship fight between Frank Edgar and champion B.J. Penn.  If you like Penn, though, you’re going to have to swallow seriously low odds as B.J. is a -700 favorite to beat Frank Edgar on Saturday night.

How should B.J. do?  Exceptionally well.  Frank Edgar just doesn’t have the experience or skills to hang with a fighter like B.J. Penn.  Penn should win this fight easily.

Like the Silva versus Maia match, Penn versus Edgar is still a fight.  So, we should look to the keys to victory for both fighters in this match.

When:  4/10/2010
Where:  Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Keys to Victory:  Frank Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

Frank Edgar

Stay out of trouble – - Edgar’s biggest strength is the fact that he never gets tired.  He can keep going and going and going.  He’s going to have to against a fighter like Penn who will have him over a barrel in regards to experience and actual skill.  Because of that, Edgar needs to stay out of trouble. 

Penn can really hurt a guy and has excellent Jiu-Jitsu skills.  So, staying out of trouble, either on the ground or standing straight-up is the best that Edgar can do for himself.

Keep fighting – - Edgar’s only real chance against Penn is to surprise B.J. because he isn’t going to outwork B.J.  That means that Edgar has to keep throwing punches and he has to keep fighting.  If Edgar takes a breather at any point during any of the rounds, he could easily lose the fight.

Work for a decision – - Besides submitting Matt Veach with a choke and beating Mark Bocek by technical knock-out, Edgar has won almost all of his matches by going the distance.  Edgar doesn’t have the power to knock-out B.J. Penn.  That doesn’t mean he stops throwing punches.  It just means that he realizes it’s going to be a long night.

B.J. Penn

Use your experience – - Frank Edgar just started fighting MMA about 3 years ago.  B.J. Penn is the most well decorated Jiu-Jitsu artist in the United States.  Penn is also coming off of a victory over Diego Sanchez and lost to arguably the best MMA fighter in the world Georges St-Pierre after taking St-Pierre to the 4th round. 

Don’t forget about stand-up fighting – - If the fight ends up on the ground, it will only be a matter of time before B.J. Penn forces Edgar to submit, but the fight may or may not end up on the ground soon enough.  So, Penn shouldn’t forget about his stand-up.  Penn’s stand-up is superior to Edgar’s.  Use it, B.J., and end this fight early.

Don’t get cocky – - B.J. Penn has never had an issue with getting cocky.  He shouldn’t start this Saturday.  Cockiness is really the only thing that could get B.J. Penn beat in this fight.  It’s happened to good fighters before.  So, B.J. should keep it in mind when he’s out there dominating Edgar.

Prediction:  This fight doesn’t go past the 2nd round in my mind.  B.J. should dominate Edgar from the opening bell and either cause the inexperienced wrestler to submit or knock him out.  Either way, don’t expect this fight to last longer than two rounds.

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