WTA Doha Championships: Safina vs. Wozniacki

Doha, Qatar – According to the rankings, Safina is the best player in the game, but who the “best” really is seems more a function of how well they play at the big events than any kind of tennis proficiency.

On Monday this week, Safina reclaimed the No.1 ranking and according to the numeric system that is a compilation of points gained over the season she has the highest tally right now, making her the top standard in the women’s game. But you will be hard pressed to find many who think she is the best.

The case against Safina is that she has not played her best on the big stage – at least not at the final moment, when it counts the most. Her losses in the Aussie Open final (to Serena Williams) and French Open final (to Svetlana Kuznetsova), as well as her loss in the Wimby semis (to Venus Williams), are held by her detractors as proof of why she isn’t the best. Not because she lost those matches, mind. Any player, even the best player, can lose a match on any given day. It is the way she lost, totally capitulating, that stands heavily against her claim to be the best in the game.

Yet, she played some of her best tennis to get to those moments and she has one last chance to redeem herself on the big stage this season when she gets her Doha bid underway against Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark.

Tennis Betting Line: Dinara Safina -160 Caroline Wozniacki +120

Match Time: 10:00 A.m. Eastern Time Wednesday October 28, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: The only time Dinara Safina and Caroline Wozniacki met was at the Madrid final earlier this season. Safina beat Wozniacki rather easily that day, in straight sets 6-2, 6-4 to capture the coveted title. A lot has happened to both players since then however. Safina saw her star fizzle while Wozniacki’s star enjoyed a spurt and their contrasting back-stories make this rematch even more compelling.

Because of the Danish teenagers’ positive trend over the summer, understandably she is getting nods in the market. She is tipped modestly at the disadvantage in this match at +120, making her a good play for the win. However, she has been struggling on form and fitness these last few weeks and you can’t make allowances for that in a tournament where you come up against top-tenners right away and don’t have time to work yourself into the proceedings.

Wozniacki leads the tour with most match wins at 65-22 but as impressive her mark is, if she has picked up more serious injuries over her busy year than we are aware of (she retired last week in Linz with visible back pains) she won’t get too far in Doha. [Might want to rethink her schedule for next year.]

Safina enters the Tour Championships with a 55-15 mark on the season and she should be well rested after omitting to enter any tournaments since her second round loss at Beijing early October. Safina gets the favourite nod from the bookies and enters at a reasonably low price of -160.

I think Safina is good value at this price point for the win. She has every opportunity to win this match and she should win. Don’t be surprised if it is a painful lopsided three-set victory.

Tennis Free Picks: Safina in three sets