WTA Monterrey Quarters: Cornet vs. Sevastova

Monterrey, Mexico – I suggested tennis bettors take a risk on Anastasija Sevastova and her large +650 odds in the first round, against top seed Jelena Jankovic (offered at -1400 favourite odds, as good as a sure thing in market terms). Logically, and with an overwhelmingly one-sided market cast, everything pointed against the wisdom of such a bet.

Thought bubble: Jankovic is a top ten player, a former world No.1, with a reputation for being one of the best grinders on the tour; there is no way she would crash against a no name. Or is there?

After giving it some more thought, dissecting some of Jankovic’s earlier matches this season, interestingly, I became convinced the aforementioned suggested bet had some basis in logic. It wasn’t so much a question of who Sevastova was and whether there was credence in her game, but rather a question of how well Jankovic would account and frankly, the sub-par item she has shown to be this season wasn’t going to cut it.

She has struggled something awful this season and more importantly, nowhere there was a sign a turnaround was about to happen. This made the possibility of an upset a real probability. As it happens, the upset came to be. Jankovic’s woes continue; Sevastova is making a name for herself.

Sevastova backed up her win over Jankovic with a victory over Iveta Benesova; impressively, Sevastova dropped only three games to the more experienced Czech 6-1, 6-2. She is now in the quarters, on the verge of a semi-final appearance but standing in her way is Alize Cornet, a viable challenger for the title in Monterrey methinks. Sevastova will have her work cut out for her.

Tennis Betting Line:

Anastasija Sevastova +1½ -110 +110 21½ O Ev U -140
Alize Cornet -1½ -130 -150 21½ O Ev U -140

First Set Line: Anastasija Sevastova -105 Alize Cornet -135

Match Time: 09:00 PM Eastern Time Friday March 5, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: The market is offering a tight betting line on this matchup, with Alize Cornet only marginally favoured at -150 and Sevastova the mere underdog at +100. What this suggests is the bookies are certain at all, which makes this matchup a bit of a tossup. We have Sevastova’s good form to consider and punching above her weight class to back it up. We have Cornet’s positive run in Monterrey and past milestones: winning her maiden title on clay last year. We also have the individual rankings of each to consider and interestingly, Sevastova is ranked slightly higher at No.72 while Cornet weighs in at No.84.

Tennis Free Picks: Sevastova has a real shot at making a statement in Monterrey. I like her odds at +110 to do so and seeing how convincing she has been to reach the quarters, I wouldn’t put a semi-final appointment past her. Cornet has the experience and therefore has the due consideration in the market but she has been struggling to find consistent form. Cornet to cover the spread at – 1 ½ -130 is a good bet though. The Over/Under totals are served at a high mark, 21 ½. If this goes to three sets, which it might, the Over is the good play and offered at Evens. The Under is interestingly favoured in the market at -140. Methinks this will be a nervy slugfest. Go with the over.

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